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Merck Serono S.A. is the biopharmaceutical division of Merck KGaA. It offers leading brands in 150 countries to help patients with cancer, multiple sclerosis, infertility, endocrine and metabolic disorders, as well as cardiovascular diseases.
Merck Serono constantly analyzes its development portfolio (pharmaceutical products that are in clinical trials and not yet launched) to effectively determine the likelihood of favorable or unfavorable outcomes, for example to determine the level of confidence that sales targets for the next ten years can be met with the existing product portfolio.
As Merck Serono’s previous tools were insufficient to show the range of possible outcomes, based on technical and market risks and uncertainties, the company deployed Oracle Crystal Ball to make Monte-Carlo-based forecasts for worst-case, best-case and most-likely scenarios for its development portfolio. Using this solution, the company extended and improved the utility of its forecasts and gained the ability to take into account the correlative risks, synergies, and project interactions as it manages its product portfolio.
“We chose Oracle Crystal Ball to enable us to perform Monte Carlo analysis, which gives us a deeper understanding and improved awareness of the value drivers, uncertainties and risks of our portfolio of development projects,” said Kimber Hardy, head of valuation and analysis, Merck Serono S.A.